Not a subscriber? Click here to learn
more.
|
| Home | About Us | Resources | Archive | Free Reports | Market Window |
It's Ugly... But Stocks Are Cheap! What to Do?By
Monday, June 27, 2011
Wow, it's ugly out there. But stocks are cheap. What should you do?
I'll explain what I think you should do today.
Let's look at both sides of the issue...
First off... It's REALLY ugly out there.
Pick your poison: The U.S. economic situation is worsening once again. Housing isn't turning around and neither is employment. Inflation is up. Outside the U.S., Greece is at risk of default... So now, Europe's banks are in crisis again. The list goes on.
In the wake of this, stocks have fallen 8% from their highs two months ago.
You could pick any combination of those reasons above as a reason for a new downtrend. But on the flip side, stocks are cheap...
By my simple math, the U.S. stock market is as cheap as it's been in 20 years, based on the most widely accepted measures of stock market value – the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and price-to-book (P/B) ratio. Take a look:
 This P/E ratio is a "recession-adjusted" P/E ratio. Late in the recessions ending in 1991, 2001, and 2009, the "E" (earnings) fell so far, the P/E ratio soared. In each case, the distortion lasted about two years. This chart adjusts for that. But we've officially been out of recession long enough, we're not adjusting today's number.
Judging by this chart, the last time stocks were this cheap was in 1991 – and the 1990s was one of the greatest decades in history to be an investor in stocks.
Today, we really do have favorable conditions for investing:
So we have terrible economic times... and great value in investments. What do we do?
I separate what matters from the "noise" by looking at the investment world through our True Wealth prism. My ideal investment meets three criteria: 1) it's cheap, 2) it's hated, and 3) it's in an uptrend.
Well, stocks are cheap, as I showed above. And as I explained last week in DailyWealth, individual investors are scared – stocks are hated.
But over the last two months, the trend's been trying to turn down. And it's now getting worrisome...
You might be surprised to hear me say this... But out of the three things in our "prism," the simple existing trend is the most important – the most consistently profitable. You don't want to fight the trend.
I'm not foolish enough to fight the trend. It took me a long while in my career to learn not to fight the trend. (Honestly, I still struggle with it.) But I know it's the right thing to do.
When everything is in a downtrend, there's no point in trying to swim upstream.
With stocks as cheap as they are now, we can afford to miss the first 5%-10% of a new uptrend when it arrives.
It's much safer to miss the first 5%-10% of the move, and get in once an uptrend appears, than it is to stand in front of an oncoming bus and predict it's going to stop and turn around. Better to wait for it to make its turn and then hop on board.
I personally think what we've seen over the last two months is a correction in this bull market. And in my True Wealth newsletter, we're holding most of our positions... Stocks are so cheap, and sentiment is so bad, I want to stay in there as long as I can.
I may be wrong, of course. So we're watching our trailing stops closely. The trailing stops are our worst-case exit plan, so we don't lose too much money if things go dramatically against us. I urge you to have an exit plan too.
For new money... yes, stocks are cheap and hated. But we don't have an uptrend. I don't want to commit new money to stocks until the uptrend reasserts itself.
The uptrend has proven to be the most important part of the prism. And it's not clearly up now. Stocks might be cheap and hated... But there's no urgency to buy right this second.
I'll tell you when I think the dust has settled and the uptrend is back...
Good investing,
Steve
Further Reading:
Steve is almost on his own with his bullish outlook on stocks. But if the long-term trend can turn around, he says, "We'll have all three things we look for in an ideal investment in place: Stocks will be 1) cheap, 2) hated, and 3) in the start of an uptrend." Read more here: A 92% Chance Stocks Will Be Higher in Three Months.
Find more ideas Steve's bullish on here:
"If you can buy a house now (and want one), go for it."
"From current prices," Steve writes, this company "is a double in waiting."
Market NotesNEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
Crocs (CROX)... shoes
Dollar Tree (DLTR)... dollar stores
Annaly Capital (NLY)... virtual bank
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)... auto parts
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)... Big Pharma
Yahoo (YHOO)... search engine
NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
Frontline (FRO)... shipping
Excel Maritime (EXM)... shipping
Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE)... shipping
Niska Gas Storage (NKA)... natural gas
Dreamworks Animation (DWA)... animated movies
Urban Outfitters (URBN)... clothing
|
In The Daily Crux
Recent Articles
|
