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The Upside Potential Here Could Blow Your MindBy
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Stocks have soared since we came out of The Great Recession in 2009 – they're up six years in a row.
After a great run like that, there's no way that stocks could possibly continue higher... right?
Actually, there is...
In the last 35 years, stocks have performed fantastically coming out of big recessions.
Based on what has happened the last few times around, we could see bigger gains ahead in stocks.
Let's take a quick look at what happened to stocks AFTER the last few big recessions. I think you'll be surprised at what you see...
In the last 35 years, we've had two other "big" recessions. They ended in 1982 and 1991. (We also had a tiny recession in 2001.)
We'll start with the 1991 recession...
Stocks bottomed out during the recession in late 1990. Then they soared for the rest of the decade.
The chart shows the stock market in the 1990s in black... and today's stock market in blue. I matched the recession low in 1990 with the recession low in 2009. Take a look:
 The message from this chart is simple... Stocks today have gone up a lot since their 2009 recession bottom... but if they happen to follow the 1990s' path, they could go up a lot more.
Now, let's take a look at the 1982 recession...
Stocks bottomed in the recession in 1982... and then they soared (for the most part) for the rest of the decade.
Like the last chart, I lined up the stock market bottom of 1982 with the stock market bottom in 2009 (in blue). Take a look:
 The gains have been surprisingly similar so far, as you can see. So... we just looked at the 1980s... and the 1990s before that... What happens if we look at stock prices over both decades together?
And what if we line up the 2009 recession's bottom in stocks with the 1982 recession's bottom in stocks? Take a look:
 Don't get me wrong... I am not predicting another decade of incredible stock returns... What I want you to get out of this is some perspective...
Yes, stocks have gone up a lot since the recession bottomed in 2009. But what has happened to stocks this time around is no different from what happened after the last two big recessions.
I'm not predicting a repeat of the past... I just want you to see that there's more potential upside possible here... More upside than most people believe today...
Don't forget it!
Good investing,
Further Reading:
Recently, Steve has shown readers many reasons to stay invested in stocks. Learn more about these indicators here:
Market NotesA POSITIVE SIGN FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY One of the important investment funds out of the dozens we follow just broke out... further confirming what we've been saying for a while now...
Despite what the pessimists may have you believe, the U.S. consumer is not dead. We've debunked that theory numerous times over the past couple months. Another indicator is flashing today... the Market Vectors Retail Fund (RTH).
This fund holds a basket of some of the market's most popular "spending stocks," including online retailer Amazon, home-improvement chain Home Depot, and wholesale warehouse giant Costco. With these types of stocks on the rise, it's hard to believe the economy is tanking.
As you can see from the chart below, RTH just reached a new all-time high. Shares are up 75% over the past three years. Things aren't all rosy out there... but this chart proves once again that they can't be all that bad, either...
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