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Steve's note: Today's essay is a bit different than what we usually publish... but it's an excellent one. It's by my friend Doug Casey. Doug is one of the world's best international investors. If you're considering a trip this year, or even making a foreign property investment, I think you'll be interested in what Doug has to say...
The Cheapest "Nice" Country in the World Right NowBy
Saturday, August 2, 2008
I've been to about 175 countries, and lived in 12. All the while, I've felt the U.S. and Western Europe in particular (but also Canada, to a somewhat lesser degree) are on a slippery slope. So I've always had an eye open for a real second home.
My longtime subscribers will recall my enthusiasm for New Zealand back in the late '90s. Since then, its currency has risen about 75% against the dollar, and well-selected property has roughly doubled or tripled in addition. New Zealand is still a great place to hang out. I bought a bunch of property and still go there about three months of the year, mainly to play polo and just enjoy the mellow lifestyle. But New Zealand is no longer the bargain it once was; far from it. It's certainly the cheapest "nice" country in the world. Indeed, Buenos Aires is absolutely one of the world's greatest and most livable cities. The country is running a massive balance of trade surplus. The government (most surprising of all) is running a big fiscal surplus. Rich Europeans are piling in, since Argentina is now ethnically and culturally the most European country in the world. And it should be fairly insulated from WW3. All the stars are aligned for this place. Even as stupid as Argentina's government has traditionally been since the days of Peron, the bull market has a long way to run. But if I'd been familiar with Salta province – in the northwest – at the time, I'd never have bothered. The province averages about 5,000 feet in altitude, but is at about the same latitude south as Cuba is north. As a consequence, the climate is perpetually mild. And it's dry. Most of it is indistinguishable from Northern Arizona, New Mexico, or Colorado. Like San Martin de los Andes in Patagonia, Cafayate is going to become another Aspen. Or maybe the resort town of Taos, New Mexico, is a better analog. Located in a huge bowl, surrounded by the high Andes, it's quaint and picturesque. Especially since it's the center of a large wine region. So the area is really more like a "Taos meets Napa." I think we've got the right place, the right idea, and the right time. I also think the cost will be right. I expect it will, initially, go for something like 10%-20% of what something similar – but not even close to as nice – would go for in the U.S.
Doug Casey Editor's note: Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research, is a best–selling author, international investor, and entrepreneur. He travels the world looking for the best real estate and natural resource investments. His work is required reading here at DailyWealth.
Further Reading:
A Place You Should Visit As Soon As Possible Market NotesTHE RIGHT WAY TO LOOK AT COMMODITIES This week's chart is a picture of the stat of the week. It shows the worst correction in commodities since 1978. We aren't surprised things like gold, corn, and oil are taking it on the chin right now. No asset rises to the moon in a straight line. Sharp corrections are inevitable after big rallies like we saw early this year. The DailyWealth take? Commodities are likely to suffer even more this year... But keep in mind: Commodity bull markets tend to last 15-20 years. The most recent one began in 2002. New mines and oil fields take years to bring on new supplies. Using history as a rough guide, this bull market isonly halfway over. And as you can see from this week's chart, commodities could fall drastically and still remain in an uptrend. – Brian Hunt |
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