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Boring Value Stock = 60% in Two MonthsBy
Saturday, June 2, 2007
I have to admit, we had some help with the stock price. Last month, in Hollywood, California, one of the most popular up-and-coming hedge fund managers, Mohnish Pabrai, gave a convincing presentation on a small mortgage lender, Delta Financial. Pabrai's presentation must have resonated with attendees of the Value Investing Congress... the stock rose 11% that day alone! I was particularly interested in what Pabrai had to say about Delta... we added the company to our Extreme Value recommended buy list in the second week of April. Since many subprime lenders lend close to 100% of the value of a home, their cash-strapped borrowers have no skin in the game, no incentive to not walk away. Delta's loan borrowers average 22% equity in their homes. That's more than enough incentive to not walk away, so they're better at paying off their loans. The center of the subprime-lending universe is Irvine, California. A lot of subprime loans have been made in the state of California. Inland real estate in California has slowed down, and prices have fallen. Since it's expensive to live on the coast, and most subprime borrowers aren't rich, it's easy to see why companies that made lots of subprime loans in California are having a bad time. The property values fell, and suddenly the borrowers owe more than their house is worth, so they drop the keys in the mailbox and move out. As of the fourth quarter of 2006, Delta had originated only 3.5% of its loans in California. But when you focus only on finding the safest, most undervalued stocks you can find, every now and then, you're going to get a really pleasant surprise... like Delta's two-month run from $8 to $13.
Market NotesSTOCKS VS. GOLD: THE PAST EIGHT YEARS This week, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high, beating the mark set in September 2000. In other words, if you'd bought stocks at the top of the market seven years ago, your account would now be showing a profit for the first time. There's a serious flaw with this way of thinking. It does not take inflation into account. Here's why: During the last seven years, the price of your health care, education, housing, gas, electricity, and even food has risen, too. Even though the S&P may appear to be at the same level it was seven years ago, in real terms, you've actually lost a lot of ground. We showed you that chart in Friday's edition of market notes, using the governments' CPI numbers. In the chart below, we've plotted the S&P against the "real money" inflation indicator, gold. So how are stocks doing against real money? Breaking even? Not even close. Try a real loss of 60%... |
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