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A Secret About U.S. Finances You Won't Read Anywhere ElseBy
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Most people misunderstand two things about the U.S. financial situation...
First, the U.S. government's official debt burden might not yet have reached the "red line" of imminent default. But our entire economy's enormous debt burden makes it nearly certain we will default on our federal debt and many of our private debts, too.
The U.S. is the world's largest debtor. As a whole, Americans owe a total of nearly $56 trillion (almost 400% of GDP). That's federal, state, municipal, corporate, and private (mortgages and student loans) debts. The debt service on our total obligation is $3.6 trillion a year.
It's hard to put that number into context because it's so large. Think about it this way: It's roughly the same amount of money as the federal government's entire budget.
To the extent our debts fueled past consumption (homes, cars, credit cards, health care, etc.), they are unlikely to spur future economic growth. That's not to mention a considerable portion of the debt belongs to foreign investors, folks who are typically more interested in building their next factory in Bangladesh than in Bangor.
When you combine this "debt tax" – aka interest – with the size of our actual tax burden (about $4.4 trillion when you combine federal taxes with state and local taxes), you can see why our economy is struggling.
We're spending half our annual GDP on taxes and interest.
Imagine if you had to spend half your family's income on taxes and interest. How would you rate your credit risk? What's the likelihood of default in that scenario?
More important, given our current federal deficits and the looming entitlement crisis we face (total unfunded future liabilities in excess of $100 trillion)... how is it possible to expect Americans will be able to afford to pay more taxes?
What would happen to our budget if interest rates rise because of inflation, which seems inevitable?
We don't think many Americans – even sophisticated investors – have considered these numbers. Our foreign creditors will realize they have no chance of being repaid in sound money. Americans simply cannot afford debt service, never mind principal repayment. There are signs they already recognize this...
Mainstream economists have long scoffed at the possibility that our foreign creditors might stop funding our existing debts at an interest rate we can afford. When you pose the question about our poor credit, they tell you our trading partners can do nothing about the dollar. If they want to sell goods to Americans, they have to accept our dollars. As Nixon's Treasury Secretary John Connally said, "It's our dollar. But it's their problem."
For years, that was true. But it's changing.
Increasingly, U.S. trading partners are taking our dollars and – instead of recycling them back into Treasury bonds – they're buying gold and strategic commodities, like oil, copper, and steel. That's why prices for these commodities have soared.
That's obvious to most folks. What isn't so obvious is what it means for the bond market...
For the last nine months, the Federal Reserve has been purchasing 70% of all the debt issued by the U.S. Treasury. What happens when the Fed stops buying? With 70% less demand for Treasurys, we expect prices to fall. Benchmark interest rates will rise.
Bill Gross, who runs the world's largest bond fund, agrees... which is why he's shorting U.S. government debt.
Higher benchmark interest rates – perhaps sharply higher – should cause the U.S. dollar to strengthen against foreign currencies (like the euro) and against commodities. It should also cause most U.S. stocks to fall.
Tomorrow, I'll show you exactly what I expect for stocks... and how we're preparing our portfolio.
Good investing,
Porter
Further Reading:
Porter Stansberry has appeared as a guest on several media outlets to discuss the end of the U.S. dollar as the world's currency and other consequences of the End of America...
Market NotesTHE BAIDU UPTREND IS CRACKING After pacing the market for two years, one of the great China "momentum" stocks is struggling…
When it comes to gauging the market's appetite for riskier, high-growth stocks, it's tough to find a better tool than shares of Baidu (BIDU), China's "Google." The company offers traders and investors an extraordinary promise of growth: Over one billion people entering the global economy… and searching the Internet for the first time. For the past few years, the market has gone wild for this promise. BIDU rebounded more than 10-fold off its post credit-crisis lows. It's been one of the "generals" leading the market higher and higher. But now the stock is trading for more than 60 times earnings… and its trend is showing its age. The stock just "broke down" to reach its lowest low in two months. This bit of price weakness is worth keeping an eye on. BIDU is one of the great glamour stocks of Chinese growth. At best, the stock's struggle is a sign the China trade is taking a short-term break. At worst, it's a sign this area of the market is starting a massive correction. |
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