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Get Ready for 566% Gains or More in Biotech

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Friday, April 18, 2008

When biotech stocks get going, they go absolutely nuts...

In the early 1990s, biotech stocks as a group had an extraordinary run – good for 1,347% profits. Of course, if you held the right names, you'd have done even better.

And that big run wasn't the only one... In addition to that quadruple-digit rally, since 1983, biotech stocks have exploded higher in four separate triple-digit rallies.

Mosaic Co.

Once a big move starts, the gains just get ridiculous. Biotech stocks as a group are at three-month highs right now... We could be on the brink of the next great move.

Of course, along with the outrageous profits, biotech stocks have spectacular busts. Biotech stocks as a group have lost 50% of their value on four separate occasions.

But biotech has been ignored since its last major peak – which occurred near the dot-com mania in 2000.

On March 6, 2000, the Nasdaq Biotech Index was around 1,600. Today, it's around 800 – still down 50% from its peak more than eight years ago.

It's been an especially long period of no returns in biotech. We're due for a big move. Innovation hasn't stopped in those eight-plus years.

Longtime readers of mine know that I like things that are 1) cheap, 2) hated/ignored, and 3) in an uptrend. Biotech is cheap. It's definitely ignored. And the biotech indexes are now up 10% off their lows of just a month ago. It could be the beginning of an uptrend.

Our in-house Quant Trader, Ian Davis, crunched the numbers for the past biotech booms (based on the Datastream Biotech Index), and here's what he found...

Average Expansion Length

2.6 years

Average Expansion Gain

+565.5%

Average Contraction Length

1.9 years

Average Contraction Loss

-46.1%

It's been a long wait since the last major biotech stock boom. I think the wait is just about over...

If you're interested in potential 565.5% gains over two and a half years (that's the average gain over the last five biotech bull markets), then you really ought to consider getting on board in biotech stocks...

Good investing,

Steve





Market Notes


ANOTHER LOOK AT THE GOLD/HOG RATIO

The business of stuffing landfills continues to suffer.

On Thursday, Harley-Davidson announced it would ship 25,000 fewer motorcycles this year than it did last year. Sales declined 13% in the first quarter, layoffs are on the way, and shares sit at a new low.

This news is further confirmation of a trend we started writing about last year... As the U.S. economy goes from "solid" to "less solid," the price of basic stuff with worldwide demand – like coal, crude oil, food, and gold – will rise versus expensive boats, motorcycles, swimming pools, and $100 shirts.

We even ran a series of ratios explaining the "real stuff" vs. "landfill stuff" situation. Our centerpiece pitted the ultimate real asset, gold, against the ultimate American icon, Harley-Davidson. When we showed you this ratio six months ago, it was around 17 and trending higher – the price of gold was far outperforming Harley shares.

Since then, Harley has lost an additional 23%. Gold has gained an additional 19%. The ratio is now 26... and the flight to real assets continues.




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