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I'd love to tell you that, yes, I'm smarter than the market.
Naturally, I'd like to think the research I've done has helped readers make bigger gains than the average investor. But when you get the big trend right and swim with the current, it's relatively easy to make big returns. Hard as it may be to believe for people spending $75 to fill up their SUVs, gasoline is actually cheap right now. It hasn't kept up with the soaring price of oil. This is a terrible situation for refineries. Since oil is the main expense of an independent refinery, business can't get much worse for them right now.
Canadian Oil Sands shares behaved exactly as Schulich predicted. While Canadian Oil Sands Trust's share price has "only" risen 171% since then, the shares split 5:1... That's a 384% total gain, counting dividends, in a little more than three years...
The soaring price of oil is causing something funny to happen to the world's oil supply. Oil-producing countries like Ecuador, Venezuela, Russia, and Nigeria sit on unbelievable stores of wealth... and they're not keen on sharing it with anyone... especially a Western oil company.
Ask an oilman who's done business in Russia or Venezuela recently, and he'll simply shake his head.
Yes, the subprime mortgage debacle has hurt the stock market... But here's a news flash: The world doesn't end because some smart guys on Wall Street ran a swindle on some other guys on Wall Street.
Tomorrow, the world will still need oil, zinc, lead, copper, silver, and gold, just like it did yesterday.
Led by China, India, and Brazil, the emerging economies of the world are consuming more and more grain, which is driving up fertilizer prices. In 2004, a metric ton of potash sold for $200. By 2006, that price rose to $290 per ton. According to Belarusian Potash, which controls 30% of the world's fertilizer market, today that ton sells for $450 and will rise to $500 by March 2008.
You need three things to operate a gold mine: water, roads, and power...
Miners are facing overtaxed infrastructure all over the world – water in Mexico, roads in India... and the granddaddy of all problems right now: electricity in South Africa.
The next time you're looking to add a Big Oil stock to your portfolio, ask yourself if it has the power of sovereignty on its side.
It may mean the difference between 20% gain and 100% gain over the next few years. |
