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How to Never Make a Bad Investment Decision AgainBy
Tuesday, July 5, 2016
It's usually easier to do the wrong thing than the right thing, or to do something poorly than do it well.
This is particularly true when it comes to your money – whether you're investing or spending it.
But asking yourself three questions – before you invest or spend – may help you avoid (or minimize) some of the most expensive mistakes...
1) Why am I buying it/investing in it?
There aren't that many reasons to buy an asset. It might be something you need, like a refrigerator. Maybe you're buying a bungalow on the beach because you want a relaxing place to get away. You might buy a stock because you want it to go up in value or pay you dividends.
Whatever the reason, anything you buy is an investment – even if you don't think of it that way. You expect to get a return from it – whether that "return" is keeping your beer cold, the feel of sand between your toes, or more cash in your brokerage account.
Just be sure to remember why you're buying something. After all, you wouldn't be upset if that biotech stock you bought doesn't keep your wine chilled – that's not what you bought it for. In the same way, if your beach bungalow collapses in value, it shouldn't bother you too much – because remember, you bought it as a vacation getaway, not as an investment.
And take the time to think it through. As famed investor Peter Lynch said, "Invest at least as much time and effort in choosing a new stock as you would in choosing a new refrigerator."
2) When am I going to sell?
If you don't have a goal, you'll never know if you've achieved it... And you won't know to sell if you don't have an idea about when (or why) you're going to sell.
You should sell something when the reason that you bought it is no longer valid. Like if the fridge heats instead of cools, the bungalow is no longer relaxing, or the stock falls in value. If these things happen, your investment isn't providing the "return" that you expected. That's the time to re-evaluate your investment, and decide whether to sell it and put the money to better use.
When you buy an asset, you probably don't know exactly when you're going to sell (and in fact, you probably shouldn't). It's not going to be a date on the calendar, circled in red, someday in the future. But the day you buy something, you should know what your criteria will be for selling – and be ready to sell when those criteria are met.
With stocks, it's easy... You should set a stop loss that will trigger the decision to sell. If the stock falls, a stop loss will limit your losses. And if what you buy goes up in value, a stop loss will ensure that you keep most of your gains.
3) What am I not buying?
There are an infinite number of things that we could buy. But we don't have an infinite amount of money (unfortunately). So whenever we buy one thing, we're making an indirect decision to not buy many other things. And there is a cost associated with that decision – it's called the opportunity cost.
When you're investing in stocks, the opportunity cost is easy to figure out. You can see how other stock prices changed after you made an investment decision and (if you want to torture yourself) how much money you might have made.
But the "cost" of what you didn't buy is less clear with respect to other types of goods. The money you spend on a beach getaway is cash that you're not putting away for your children's education. You're also not buying shares in a stock that could double or triple in price in coming years (or in a stock that could fall to zero).
When you understand what you're not buying, you might change your mind about your purchase. Or you might decide that, given your aims and objectives (see the first question above), what you're buying is the best possible use of your funds.
After you're finished answering these three questions, ask yourself: "If I had the cash in my hand to buy this thing right now, instead of the thing itself (whether it's a refrigerator, beach bungalow, or stock), would I still buy it right now?"
Every moment that you're holding on to an asset, you're using valuable capital that you could put to a different use... So every day you are "buying" something that you already own.
By answering these three questions, you'll avoid a lot of the ways that your emotions can be investment pitfalls.
Regards,
Kim Iskyan
Further Reading:
Last month, Kim shared the biggest mistake he made starting out as an investor. "I've learned a lot of expensive lessons in my life," he writes. "But I did learn a few things that I still have to remind myself of occasionally." Get the details here: My First Million-Dollar Investment Mistake.
Mike Barrett says the key to investing is understanding the business and how it makes money. See what he says you must look for in a successful investment here: Your No. 1 Job as an Investor Before You Buy a Stock.
Market NotesNEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
General Mills (GIS)... food
Hershey (HSY)... chocolate
Sysco (SYY)... food products
Clorox (CLX)... consumer goods
Procter & Gamble (PG)... consumer goods
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)... health care products
Medtronic (MDT)... health care devices
UnitedHealth (UNH)... health care insurance
Welltower (HCN)... health care facilities
Aflac (AFL)... insurance
Allstate (ALL)... insurance
Automatic Data Processing (ADP)... payroll processor
Paychex (PAYX)... payroll processor
3M (MMM)... manufacturing
Lockheed Martin (LMT)... "offense" contractor
Northrop Grumman (NOC)... "offense" contractor
Altria (MO)... tobacco
AT&T (T)... telecom
Verizon (VZ)... telecom
Dollar General (DG)... discount stores
Dollar Tree (DLTR)... discount stores
Chevron (CVX)... oil
ExxonMobil (XOM)... oil
Barrick Gold (ABX)... gold miner
Franco-Nevada (FNV)... gold royalties
Silver Wheaton (SLW)... silver royalties
NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
Barclays (BCS)... British bank
HSBC Holdings (HSBC)... British bank
Lloyds Banking (LYG)... British bank
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS)... British bank
Deutsche Bank (DB)... German bank
Banco Santander (SAN)... Spanish bank
Goldman Sachs (GS)... American bank
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