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Yellow Fever: Avoiding the Hype in Uranium Stocks

By Matt Badiali, editor, S&A Resource Report
Friday, July 13, 2007

Remember the dot-com bubble?

Take these seven companies: Pets.com, Kozmo.com, Flooz.com, eToys.com, boo.com, MVP.com, and Go.com. Eight years ago, these companies together raised more than $2 billion at IPO. Today, they are all bankrupt.

Merely having 'dot-com' in the names made millions – sometimes billions – for the companies' founders when these businesses went public.

My favorite was Zap.com, floated by the Zapata Corporation. Zapata is a fish-protein and food-packaging corporation. But in 1999, it sniffed opportunity online and launched an Internet media company called Zap.com. It had no business plan. It simply thought the catchy name – Zap.com – would be enough to draw millions of users to its site. It failed, of course. Investors lost their money, and now zap.com is a public shell company with no existing business.

These fads come and go all the time. In the '60s, it was computer and electronics stocks. If a company had "tron" or "ics" in its name, investors wanted it. Nytronics, Bristol Dynamics, and Supronics all scored large gains at IPO. Dynatronics was issued at $7 and jumped to $25 in its first few minutes on the market. Risitron Laboratories went from $1 to $4. Simulmatics had a negative net worth. It jumped 450% in the first hour following its IPO.

Today, I'm seeing a new fad. But this time it's not technology, dot-com, or electronics. It's uranium.

I'll give you an example. Last year, Hoopsoft Development Corp. designed sports exercise videos and Internet software. Hoopsoft began trading on the bulletin board exchange in November 2006. But in 2007, it found a better business idea... uranium mining. So it changed its name to Yellowcake mining (YCKM.OB) and started looking around for a project.

Yellowcake's key asset is the right to acquire 80% of a project called Juniper Ridge, in Wyoming. So this company is an option on a potential project... uh oh.

The stock was up 20% last week.

Investors are going ga-ga over uranium right now. High oil prices and concern over global warming are getting investors excited about nuclear power again. The U.S. could permit as many as 24 new plants starting next year. Russia plans 42 new plants by 2030. China brought 11 nuclear plants online over the last three years with more planned.

At the same time, uranium supplies are tight. Two of the world's largest uranium mines are out of order right now. Cigar Lake – the second-largest high-grade uranium deposit in the world – is flooded.

Energy Resources of Australia's giant open-pit Ranger mine also flooded in March, cutting first-quarter production by 20% to 30%.

As a result, the uranium price is up 1,400% in the last five years. And get this: Last week the uranium price suffered its first losing week in 47 months!

Uranium mining companies are making a fortune. Revenues are up 80% since 2005 at Cameco – the world's largest uranium miner – and its stock price is up from $3 to $50 since July 2002. Now everyone wants 'uranium' in the company name.

We've already looked at Yellowcake. But what about these? Alpine Resources Corp., founded in 2005, changed its name to American Uranium Corp. two months ago. Boulder Creek Explorations, Inc. changed its name to CanAm Uranium Corp. in 2006. And Lakefield Ventures, Inc. became Urex Energy Corp. in July 2006.

These name changes scream, "Investors beware."

As my regular readers know, I'm loath to recommend uranium companies right now because this kind of stuff is happening. Any speculation on uranium exploration is a race to see if the company can spend all of its (your) money before the price of the commodity collapses.

However, if you absolutely must invest in uranium, buy established companies, like Cameco, that are producing uranium and forget the small-cap explorers. Why do I advise this? Because in the last three weeks, the uranium price has fallen 2.2% – its first decline in four years. All the speculative stocks are down double digits. Not Cameco. Its stock is holding up well... so far...

Good investing,

Matt




Market Notes


THE CANADIAN INCOME TRUST RECOVERY


Last October, Canadian finance minister John Flaherty dropped a bomb on the country's popular royalty trust program. We called it the Canadian Income Trust Debacle.

Canadian authorities felt too many companies were taking advantage of the trust tax loophole, which was originally designed to encourage investment in Canada's resource sector. The news wiped out billions in market caps.

One of the biggest and best trusts, Enerplus Resources, was handed a 30% haircut along with the news. After the decline, Tom Dyson rushed a report to readers of The 12% Letter, telling them the worst was priced into the royalty trust sector… and a rebound would follow as the world realized the trusts still offered years of big dividends.

Tom's been dead on… as investors flock back into royalty trusts, 12% Letter readers are up 30% in just nine months. The Canadian income trust recovery is on…

 



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