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A Shocking Presentation from a Master SpeculatorBy
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
I just heard an amazing speech.
I'm at the South American business forum. It's a conference for 100 of South America's most elite university students. The students won a competition to be here. They're taking the event very seriously... We're in the old Argentine stock market building in Buenos Aires. It is 154 years old and one of Argentina's grandest buildings. Giant portraits hang on the walls, the floors are made of marble, and hardwood banisters as wide as skateboards line the staircases. It's Friday evening. A full symphony orchestra is blasting out a Revel concerto in the basement. The music carries to every corner of the building... The presenters include the "director general of ecology commission at the United Nations" and the "copresident of intergovernmental panel on climate change." There's even a Nobel Peace Prize winner here. I arrive early and catch a panel discussion between two United Nations bureaucrats on global warming. Then Doug Casey takes the stage... First, he tells the students to ignore everything they've heard so far. The speakers are all government stooges with no idea how the real world works. "Their ideas are nonsense," he says. Heads rise. Some students giggle in embarrassment. Doug then explains how inflation, not bankers, caused the financial crisis... why democracy is a terrible way to organize society... how global warming is a hoax... and why most modern schools and universities are a complete waste of time if you're looking for an education. Some students are beginning to get upset. I see heads shaking in disagreement. One girl is so keen to argue, she puts her hand up and interrupts Doug's presentation. I hear more giggles. Then Doug gives the students advice. First, he tells them to stop worrying about global warming and do something productive like start a business. To get rich, he tells them, all they have to do is produce more than they consume and save the difference in real money. Then he tells them to read two books: The Market for Liberty by Linda and Morris Tannehill and his own book, Crisis Investing for the Rest of the 90s. The Market for Liberty shows how society would function without a government. It's an amazing book. You can download it free here. Crisis Investing for the Rest of the 90s is Doug's best book. It accurately predicted the events of the financial crisis and has been a close companion of mine for the last 12 months. You can buy a used copy on Amazon for less than a dollar. Finally, Doug gives us his favorite investments... He likes the Argentine cattle business. Cattle prices, adjusted for inflation, are at an all-time low. Farmers can't make any money at these prices and they're deserting their cattle businesses. So few people want to farm beef these days, Argentina, once the beef capital of the world, has recently become a net importer of beef. Doug is building a huge cattle and dairy herd on a ranch in the north of Argentina. Doug also likes gold. He thinks it's going to $4,000 or $5,000 an ounce in the future as the Fed tries to inflate its way out of the crisis. Selling government bonds is Doug's third speculation. Governments have artificially suppressed interest rates around the world, he says. When the bubble bursts, interest rates will go through the roof. Government bonds will collapse in value when this happens. Doug received a hearty round of applause at the end of his speech. Some students enjoyed the controversy. But I wonder how many heard the message... Good investing, Tom P.S. If you'd like to read Doug's ideas on education... cattle speculation... the best value sports car in America... or why global warming is a hoax... then you need to read Conversations With Casey, Doug's new free e-letter. Each week, Doug reveals a little more of his philosophy in an interview. It's essential reading. Learn more here.
Further Reading:
The Only Sure Thing We Know About Gold and the U.S. Dollar Market NotesOUR CORRECTION PREDICTION FOR RESOURCE STOCKS
Today, we check in again with the Canadian Venture Index to remind readers that, yes, it is still a quiet and steady bull market in small resource companies.
We track small mining and energy companies with the Canadian Venture Index. We consider it the "Dow Industrials of small resource stocks." The Venture has enormous potential to rise in the coming years if folks flee paper money and flock to real assets like oil, gold, silver, and uranium. We tagged this index as a potential moonshot candidate almost the exact day it bottomed last December... and we've updated you monthly on its progress. This progress has led to a 67% gain so far this year. After such big gains, a trader has to wonder when this bull run will "take a break" and experience a sharp pullback, as all bull markets do. Our answer: not until it receives a rash of publicity in mainstream newspapers and magazines. Right now, these publications are covering the falling dollar, $8,000 housing credits, and Wall Street pay packages. The bull market in small resource companies just "doesn't sell well" right now. When it does, it will pull the masses in, experience a correction, and – as usual – relieve the public of their capital. 
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