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Don't Trust the New Rally Until You See This Signal

By Tom Dyson, publisher, The Palm Beach Letter
Monday, July 27, 2009

The bull market is back on... almost.

The S&P 500, the most important stock index in the world, is racing to new highs. Two weeks ago, I was ready to proclaim the bear market rally "dead." Then the market whipsawed. It broke to new nine-month highs last week and is now closing in on the 1,000 milestone...


But wait... what about Russia?

To help me keep track of the major trends in the market, I maintain a list of 87 exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These ETFs represent every major stock sector, currency, commodity, and country index. I calculate the three-month performance of each ETF and then order them first to last. By analyzing this list, I can immediately tell which sectors the money's flowing into and which sectors it's leaving.

Russia represents everything stock-market bulls are in love with: Growth in third-world consumption, scarce commodities, global trade, and cheap labor.

Russia topped my ETF performance list from the moment the stock market started rallying in March... until it topped out in June. If Russian stocks aren't soaring, there's a problem.

Below is a chart of Russian stocks, as measured by the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX). They made new bull market highs in May, pulled back during June, and started rising again in July. Unlike the S&P 500, Russia has not made new highs.


As Jesse Livermore, the original and most famous trend trader used to say, "As the leaders go, so goes the entire market."

Besides Russia, financials, homebuilding, and Indian stocks led the recent market rally. All those charts look a lot like the one above.

Until you see these sectors make new highs, you should remain skeptical of the current rally in the S&P… even though it's enticing.

When I see these sectors make new highs, I'll be ready to issue the "all clear." Until then, I recommend you keep your powder dry...

Good investing,

Tom




Market Notes


NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
 
Inergy LP (NRGY)... pipelines
TC Pipelines LP (TCLP)... pipelines
Buckeye Partners (BPL)... pipelines
TEPPCO Partners LP (TPP).. pipelines
Sunoco Logistics Partners LP (SXL)... pipelines
Cerner (CERN)... health care IT
Hatteras Financial (HTS)... mortgage REIT
DynCorp (DCP)... military contractor
Baidu (BIDU)... Chinese search engine
China Life (LFC)... China's largest insurance company
China Housing & Land (CHLN)... Chinese real estate
Aluminum Corporation Of China (ACH)... aluminum
Starbucks (SBUX)... expensive coffee
P.F. Chang's (PFCB)... expensive Chinese food
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)... expensive furnishings
AmeriGas Partners LP (APU)... propane distribution 
P.T. Telekomunikasi (TLK)... Indonesian telecom

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK


Central Pacific (CPF)... bank
S&T Bancorp (STBA)... bank
Popular (BPOP)... bank
First Merchants (FRME)... bank
UCBH Holdings (UCBH)... bank
First Busey (BUSE)... bank
Susquehanna (SUSQ)... bank
KeyCorp (KEY)... bank
Green Bankshares (GRNB)... bank
Pinnacle Financial (PNFP)... bank 

In The Daily Crux



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