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Donald Trump Is Boring

By Tom Dyson, publisher, The Palm Beach Letter
Tuesday, April 11, 2006

This weekend, I went to the Real Estate Wealth Expo at the Los Angeles convention center...

This was a huge event. I was even told this real estate convention was the largest investment event ever held. Attendance was estimated to be 58,000 people.

Donald Trump was the headline speaker. They paid him $1.5 million for his one-hour speech. That’s $25,000 per minute. They say it’s the most anyone’s ever been paid to stand on stage without a guitar.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, was also there. So were Suze Orman, Magic Johnson, and a dozen other famous wealth coaches and gurus...

There will be four more similar events this year... in Chicago, Atlanta, Boston, and New York. Trump will earn $1.5 million at each one.

Before we go any further, let’s be honest. I didn’t go there with an open mind. Here’s a list of the preconceptions I held as I walked through the doors:

1) The speakers are frauds. They have no valuable information to offer me and their products are worthless. They come to these events to feel important and tell everyone how rich they are. I liken them to television evangelists.

2) The crowd is composed of idiots. They have no idea how to invest. This is the dumb money. They believe real estate prices only move up and it’s easy to get rich in property. Sooner or later they will all get burned.

3) The conference will benefit DailyWealth readers in two ways. First, we get to observe the euphoria and greed of a crowd that’s about to get slaughtered. Many years from now - when it’s time to sell our gold and commodity investments - this experience will come in handy. Second, we may find ways to profit by betting against this crowd.

The convention was widely advertised. It was all over the Internet, in magazines, and on posters around Los Angeles. I even found an ad in Southwest’s in-flight magazine.

The convention center was packed. I decided not to eat breakfast. Big mistake. The only restaurants within a three-mile radius were all in the convention center. The line to get into the food court was so long, I’d have waited in line for over ninety minutes to get any food. The line at Starbucks was just as bad... probably three hundred people. I didn’t eat until I went home in the evening.

The main lecture hall was gigantic. The floor measured 346,000 square feet... about the size of six football fields...

To make sure everyone could see, they hung 12 giant screens from the ceiling.

Here’s what I learned amidst the crowd:

My preconceptions were totally wrong. The gurus spoke their minds. They warned the crowd about real estate prices. The overriding sentiment of the speakers was that California real estate prices are in serious trouble and there’s going to be a bust.

But this is good news they all said... “A bust will create enormous opportunities for us.”

Real estate experts hoping for a bust? I didn’t expect this
sentiment at all.

I spoke to a number of attendees. It didn’t feel like I was talking to dumb money. These people were not flipping condos. They wanted to learn about foreclosure auctions, tax strategies, and legal protection. Above all...

They wanted to be entrepreneurs. They wanted freedom from corporate America and the chance to take a risk. I applaud.

The real suckers, I still believe, are those who need house prices to go up in order to survive. The market will hurt them. I include condo developers, aggressive lenders, and individuals who overreached.

And as for Donald Trump... he was one of the worst speakers I saw all weekend. They gave him a huge build up, chanting his name... Trump. Trump. Trump. They waved signs and dropped ticker tape for him, but he’s just not a talented public speaker.

Here’s what one guy said:

Trump has such a big ego and his speech was all about him. I was bored. The best speaker I saw this weekend had an even bigger ego, but he made his speech about the crowd. The crowd loved him for it.”

I was bored too. I left Trump’s speech half way through. One speaker however, caught my attention... I was totally surprised.

More on this surprise in my next DailyWealth column...

Good Investing,

Tom Dyson





Market Notes


CRUDE OIL HEADS HIGHER

After moving sideways for six months, crude oil is climbing back towards the hurricane-inspired highs of August 2005.

The energy bears will be right eventually… oil will correct to the downside and wipe out heavily leveraged traders. For now though, the chart below shows an oil market making higher highs and higher lows. To fight that now is insanity.

A market that “wants” to head higher… Crude Oil (2-year chart):

While crude oil inches up the charts towards $70 a barrel, it pulls a wagon full of oil producing stocks with it. For example, blue chip oil sands play Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS/UN.TO) is up 288% in the past two years. The returns in the right resource stocks are truly amazing…

Canadian Oil Sands Trust (2-year chart):



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